CONCACAF Game 1 vs. Houston Line-up Prediction
Welcome to my first post! I have been a CITY fan since 2014 (yes they only kicked off last year, but that was the year my buddy and I made a blood oath if we ever got an MLS team, we’d go full scarf wearing season ticket holding superfans) and I spent our inaugural season just being a fan and enjoying the team, and what a ride it was. There was stuff last year that will be a core memory for me til I die (Klauss’ goal against Austin, Bürki yelling at Copetti during the first ever home match, etc.) and this year I decided to start a blog as a creative outlet for how much time I spend kicking this stuff around in my head anyways.
I have no idea how well this will do, or even if anyone will even pay attention at all, and frankly that’s fine; I’m doing this for me and maybe a few buddies of mine who are amused by what goes on in my head, and if that’s all this is that’s fine. If any of you do enjoy this, good! I plan to keep doing it.
All opinions are my own, not necessarily accurate or correct, and I don’t really engage in discussion on the internet so even though this blog is by definition discussion on the internet, any dissenting opinions will most likely not be responded to. Not that anyone who dissents is wrong, I just don’t go in much for trying to change others opinions. It stresses me out. Any responses I give in deference to intellectual discussion of different views will be made on my own discretion, and be warned I don’t feed trolls.
So. First post. To stay somewhat structured, my initial plan is to put out a line-up prediction and game review for each game, and any other posts when the mood strikes.
That being said, this first line-up prediction is a doozy, because it all kind of hinges on one thing; how much you think CITY/Carnell care about the CONCACAF Champion’s Cup. The home opener is 3 days later, so how do you balance who starts/who rests and so on? Would you rather play the A team on Wednesday and maybe take an L in the first regular season game because hey it’s CONCACAF or do you put more weight on the MLS opener and kinda punt the cup?
Well, I think in all honesty this early in the season with most players well rested they’ll try to win both. If you’re gonna punt anything, punt the away leg of CONCACAF and maybe play team A and a half against New York City March 2nd or vice versa. I think they’ll want to start the first two home games with W’s and play strong lineups with a few rotations in both.
That being said, let’s get into my prediction. For these I plan to divide players into completely made-up tiers that will change every time because deal with it, give brief explanations on each player and my reasoning for their tier and follow it with my “Gun to my Head” Line-up (By which I mean if you held a gun to my head and told me to name a starting 11, this would be it). So let’s get into it!
Slam Dunk Starters. If you argue with me, you’re wrong
Klauss, Parker, Löwen, Bürki
I know I said I’d explain my reason for each player, and I’m already breaking that rule, but c’mon. Any serious line-up starts with these four, and I see no reason or need to justify them individually. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carnell actually had copies made of a line-up sheet with these four names already written in just to save himself some time.
One of these players will start, the other won’t
Nilsson, Yaro, Durkin, Blom
Nilsson - I honestly believe Nilsson is better than Yaro, and based on some of Lutz’s comments from last year I’m pretty sure he thinks Nilsson is better than Parker. He probably is correct; Nilsson when he played last year showed flashes of who I believe he can be, but coming off that long injury and other acclimation factors I believe led to his mostly average showing. That being said, we’re still talking about a dude who saw serious minutes in Europe and while Parker is HIM he’s also mostly bounced around the MLS, so I’m inclined to trust Lutz on this one (Hell I’d trust Lutz on most things honestly).
Yaro - While I do believe Nilsson is better than Yaro, Yaro put in some really solid work when called on. As captain of CITY2, I also think he’s a leader in the locker room and he established a really good pairing with Parker. Could totally see him getting the nod to save Nilsson for the home opener, or vice versa.
Durkin - I like what I’ve seen so far, and if that pace holds steady as much as I loved Stroud and Bartlett having this dude basically beat all of Stroud’s defensive and passing numbers historically plus being younger and having higher upside could make that trade really lopsided towards us. In pre-season he's looked great.
Blom - I almost put Blom in a different category, but didn’t because he more fits this, “If not A, then B” category. Blom when he’s on is a game changer. Defensively the dude can be astounding, and his work rate is nothing to sneeze at. The question mark is his on the ball moments. I’ve seen him brilliantly win a ball, dodge 2 dudes on the other team but then immediately pass it to a third. Sometimes he doesn’t even dodge the second dude, leading to some dangerous movements going the other way. But lord help the other team if Blom came to play. They won’t get the ball past midfield.
Are they their ceiling, or are they their floor
Adeniran, Jackson, Vassilev
Adeniran - I love this dude. 6’ 5” with pace? And skills? HOO BOY that trivela against Austin *fans self*. The problem is sometimes he seems to forget what he’s good at. For a dude as fast as he is, he doesn’t try to get in behind a whole heckuva lot even though when he does it causes all sorts of problems for the other team. And while as stated I love the 1v6 Adeniran vs the world goals, there’s a bunch of times those moments ended instead with him giving away possession.
Jackson - Because I am a huge CITY fan and also a huge geek, I play pokemon Nuzlockes where I name the pokemon I catch after CITY players. Means a whole lot more to me if I’m in a battle and if Klauss faints I have to release him, let me tell you. Anyways, where I’m going with this is I did a Nuzlocke a few months ago and named the Abra I caught Jackson. When my wife asked why, my response was, “Because he either magically wins you the match, or teleports himself right out of it.”
Vassilev - Indy might be my favorite person on the team, just as an overall human being. Every piece of social media content CITY puts out with him have been hilarious, and the interviews of him I’ve listened to reinforce that. And I absolutely see it sometimes on the field; when he was playing the 10 for that string of games, especially against Kansas, I was convinced that was his best position. Kind of still am honestly. But I’ve also seen… I dunno, just some overall shakiness. His passes sometimes aren’t on target. Strings of attacking movements sometimes end with him passing back because he didn’t move quick enough to connect to the next piece. But man if he develops… *shivers*
Starting caliber, but probably won’t due to health/fitness/other
Alm, Dyhr
Alm - I honestly think Alm is one of our better players, and our best off the ball player by far. The amount of times he makes runs trying to get in behind or even just to draw coverage and create space is incredible. I’m kinda worried it’s why he can’t seem to stay healthy, but hopefully this season is better for him once he comes back.
Dyhr - I might be jumping the shark on this, but I really don’t think so. In preseason it already looks like they moved Hiebert back to CB and have had a patchwork group of people play LB aside from Markanich, and while I thought Markanich played well at the end of last season for the most part even though I haven’t seen Dyhr play personally, his pedigree makes me confident he’ll take the starting LB job once he’s up to speed.
The current match fit fullbacks
Totland, Markanich
Totland - The title of this category makes it seem like I view Totland as a placeholder, which I absolutely don’t; based on what I’ve seen of him in pre-season he almost could be included in the “Slam Dunk Starter” category but I held off because A: it seems premature even if he looks good in pre-season, and B: I didn’t want to detract from the 4 names in that category. He also didn’t fit well in any other category I thought up, so here he is.
Markanich - Good role player for us last season and a perfectly functional left back. Sometimes I get thrown off on him because he looks 12 years old but is 6’1”. I fully expect him to start this first game for fitness/other concerns, but for the reasons I listed above I don’t see him as the full time starter long term.
Starter? Or Super Sub?
Thórrison, Pompeu
Thórrison - Lutz and co. seem really high on him, and see above note regarding my trust in Lutz. He looked fine to me, nothing to complain about, but I haven't seen anything that locks him as a starter to me yet but he’s definitely good enough to see important minutes. We’ll see how they utilize him.
Pompeu - Now THIS dude, oh man, honestly I think he’s the most exciting player on the ball we got. If we need a dude to win a 1v1 with the game on the line he’s the guy that gets the ball. There’s only two reasons I don’t think he’ll start; he’s not all that great defensively, and I think he’ll make the most impact as fresh legs vs tired legs. I really, REALLY want him to develop into a no brainer starting winger and think he’s maybe 2% away.
Great human beings, most likely bench warmers
Hiebert, Watts, Nerwinski
I have nothing against any of these dudes individually or as a group, they all have their strengths and weaknesses, I just think at the positions they play there are better starting options. That’s all there is to it.
If they make the matchday squad at all, it’s on the bench
Glover, McSorley, Kijima, Wentzel
These guys have all gotten preseason minutes, and it would not surprise me if some saw 1st team minutes this year or were impact players in our future, but not for this game.
P.S - After I wrote the first draft of this I watched the pre-season game against LAFC and out of all the names in this tier Kijima I think will see consistent first team minutes first. He isn't quite there yet but I see why they drafted him.
Ben Lundt
Ben Lundt. Look, you need a back-up keeper on the bench, and it’s this guy for the moment. I honestly think he’s good, he looks like a starting caliber MLS goalie when I’ve seen him play, he just happens to play on the same team as the guy who’d play goalie on the team where God plays the number 10. Not his fault, but that’s the way it is.
Gun to my head line-up
In pre-season games so far Carnell has them playing a lot of two striker up top formations with Klauss dropping back further behind to play sort of a false 9. I personally have reservations about playing both Adeniran and Klauss at the same time, since they're very similar strikers, but I don't feel like Carnell is hiding any plans here. That being said, you also have a tight set of games the first few weeks, and I could see them wanting to rest one or the other too. So with that in mind, here's my predicted starting 11. Thanks for reading!
4-2-2-2
Klauss Adeniran
Jackson Vassilev
Durkin Lowen
Markanich Parker Yaro Totland
Bürki
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